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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+8.97vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.64+3.66vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+8.10vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.33+2.90vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.55+5.18vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.07+2.04vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.94+1.83vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.10-0.39vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.53-3.03vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.37+5.27vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.35+0.24vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.77-2.53vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.82-3.65vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.07-1.65vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-3.75vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.05-3.53vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.90-4.00vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03-5.36vs Predicted
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19University of Miami2.27-7.52vs Predicted
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20Connecticut College0.73-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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5.66Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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11.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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6.9Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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10.18U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
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8.04Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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8.83Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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7.61Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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5.97Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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15.27Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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11.24College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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9.47Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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9.35Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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12.35University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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11.25Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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12.47University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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13.0Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.64St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
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11.48University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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17.22Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Unangst | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.1% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack Welburn | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Carlos de Castro | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 10.9% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 18.0% | 18.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| William Michels | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Miles Williams | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 4.5% |
| Maks Groom | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| Benjamin Honig | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.7% |
| Shea Smith | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 6.5% |
| Felix Cutler | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 5.6% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 45.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.