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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.35+10.08vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.82+6.95vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.64+2.75vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.77+5.24vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+5.91vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.55+4.34vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.05+5.82vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32+3.08vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.33-2.22vs Predicted
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10University of Miami2.27+1.60vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.07+1.44vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.10-3.97vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-2.61vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.07-6.13vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.53-8.85vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.94-7.49vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.37-1.87vs Predicted
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18Tufts University1.90-4.78vs Predicted
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19St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03-6.54vs Predicted
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20Connecticut College0.73-2.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.08College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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8.95Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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5.75Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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9.24Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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10.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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10.34U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
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12.82University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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11.08Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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6.78Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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11.6University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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12.44University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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8.03Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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10.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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7.87Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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6.15Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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8.51Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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15.13Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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13.22Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.46St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
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17.27Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| William Michels | 6.9% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.4% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Jack Welburn | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Benjamin Honig | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 5.3% |
| Maks Groom | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.1% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 2.4% |
| Miles Williams | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 4.5% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Daniel Unangst | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 12.1% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 16.9% | 18.7% |
| Shea Smith | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.7% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 4.3% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 15.3% | 46.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.