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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.53+5.08vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+8.01vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+8.19vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.35+7.28vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.33+1.92vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.05+6.72vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.37+8.66vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.77+1.11vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.64-3.38vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.94-1.42vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.10-2.99vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-0.35vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.55-2.28vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03-1.32vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.07-2.52vs Predicted
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16Boston College3.07-8.05vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.90-3.88vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.37-2.55vs Predicted
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19University of Miami2.27-7.45vs Predicted
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20Dartmouth College2.82-10.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.08Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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10.01U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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11.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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11.28College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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6.92Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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12.72University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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15.66Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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9.11Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.62Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.58Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.01Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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11.65Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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10.72U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
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12.68St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
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12.48University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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7.95Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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13.12Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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15.45Connecticut College1.370.0%1st Place
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11.55University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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9.22Dartmouth College2.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Sitzmann | 12.3% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.3% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Honig | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 16.1% | 26.1% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.3% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 5.9% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Maks Groom | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| Jack Welburn | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% |
| Felix Cutler | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| Miles Williams | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Shea Smith | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.1% |
| Matias Martin | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 26.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
| William Michels | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.