← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1College of Charleston2.35+10.32vs Predicted
-
2Roger Williams University3.10+6.07vs Predicted
-
3Brown University3.33+4.10vs Predicted
-
4Harvard University3.64+1.82vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03+7.72vs Predicted
-
6Dartmouth College2.82+3.29vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+3.58vs Predicted
-
8University of Pennsylvania2.47+2.60vs Predicted
-
9Stanford University3.53-2.85vs Predicted
-
10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+1.39vs Predicted
-
11University of Miami2.27+0.81vs Predicted
-
12University of Rhode Island2.07+0.86vs Predicted
-
13Northeastern University1.37+2.73vs Predicted
-
14Tufts University1.90-0.68vs Predicted
-
15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-3.87vs Predicted
-
16Tulane University2.94-7.27vs Predicted
-
17U. S. Naval Academy2.55-6.75vs Predicted
-
18Boston College3.07-9.84vs Predicted
-
19Yale University2.77-9.57vs Predicted
-
20Connecticut College1.37-4.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
11.32College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
-
8.07Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
-
7.1Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
-
5.82Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
-
12.72St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
-
9.29Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
-
10.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
-
10.6University of Pennsylvania2.470.0%1st Place
-
6.15Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
-
11.39Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
-
11.81University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
-
12.86University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
-
15.73Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
-
13.32Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
-
11.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
-
8.73Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
-
10.25U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
-
8.16Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
-
9.43Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
-
15.55Connecticut College1.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.1% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 2.7% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.8% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Felix Cutler | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 6.3% |
| William Michels | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| Daniel Unangst | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| Jackson McAliley | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% |
| Miles Williams | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 15.3% | 28.2% |
| Shea Smith | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Jack Welburn | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Matias Martin | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 25.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.