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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+4.76vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+9.18vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.90+10.28vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.47+6.78vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.55+5.29vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.33+1.00vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.10+1.22vs Predicted
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8Boston College3.07-0.19vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.27+2.61vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.53-3.80vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.82-1.81vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03+0.90vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-2.49vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.77-4.63vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.73+2.08vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island2.07-3.52vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.37-1.77vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-6.83vs Predicted
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19Tulane University2.94-10.48vs Predicted
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20College of Charleston2.35-8.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.76Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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11.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
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13.28Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.78University of Pennsylvania2.470.0%1st Place
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10.29U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
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7.0Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.22Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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7.81Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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11.61University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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6.2Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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9.19Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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12.9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
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10.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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9.37Yale University2.770.0%1st Place
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17.08Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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12.48University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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15.23Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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11.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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8.52Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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11.42College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 13.0% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| Shea Smith | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 8.2% |
| Jackson McAliley | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| Jack Welburn | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 10.8% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Felix Cutler | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 4.8% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 14.3% | 47.3% |
| Miles Williams | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 4.9% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 18.0% | 18.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 1.7% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.