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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.07+11.38vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.64+3.65vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03+9.59vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+6.02vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.33+1.80vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.53+0.12vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.82+2.34vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+2.77vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.77+0.11vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.45+0.66vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32+0.38vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston2.35-0.66vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.10-4.92vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.07-6.12vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.47-4.38vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.27-4.55vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.37-1.87vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.73-0.75vs Predicted
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19U. S. Naval Academy2.55-8.83vs Predicted
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20Tufts University1.90-6.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.38University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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5.65Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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12.59St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
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10.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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6.8Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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6.12Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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9.34Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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9.11Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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10.66Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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11.38Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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11.34College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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8.08Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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7.88Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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10.62University of Pennsylvania2.470.0%1st Place
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11.45University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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15.13Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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17.25Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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10.17U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
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13.27Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Williams | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 4.5% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.9% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Felix Cutler | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 5.9% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.7% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 10.6% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Kelly Holthus | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Maks Groom | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 2.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 2.6% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 16.1% | 19.4% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 47.5% |
| Jack Welburn | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Shea Smith | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 7.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.