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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.99+8.64vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.18+6.67vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.71+4.22vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+5.62vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.14+3.29vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.07+3.10vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.69+3.37vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-0.96vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.09-0.02vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.59-3.07vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College0.41+1.02vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.43-4.70vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.28-4.70vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.87-4.84vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-6.55vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College-0.13-1.97vs Predicted
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17Florida State University0.50-6.07vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.47-3.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.994.4%1st Place
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8.67Cornell University1.186.5%1st Place
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7.22Northeastern University1.719.2%1st Place
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9.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.994.9%1st Place
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8.29Boston University1.146.7%1st Place
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9.1George Washington University1.075.7%1st Place
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10.37Fordham University0.693.5%1st Place
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7.04St. Mary's College of Maryland1.688.9%1st Place
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8.98Connecticut College1.094.8%1st Place
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6.93Tufts University1.598.6%1st Place
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12.02SUNY Maritime College0.412.4%1st Place
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7.3Webb Institute1.439.2%1st Place
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8.3University of Pennsylvania1.286.3%1st Place
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9.16University of Vermont0.875.6%1st Place
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8.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.406.5%1st Place
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14.03Connecticut College-0.131.5%1st Place
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10.93Florida State University0.504.6%1st Place
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14.96Princeton University-0.470.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Walker | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Pilar Cundey | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Will Priebe | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Reed McAllister | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Tiare Sierra | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| James Owen | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 3.6% |
| Nathan Jensen | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Duncan Craine | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Gus Macaulay | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 10.9% |
| Payne Donaldson | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| John Majernik | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Christian Cushman | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 18.0% | 25.8% |
| Brady Parks | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 5.5% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 16.0% | 41.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.