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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.77+8.22vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.35+9.16vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+8.05vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.07+3.98vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.07+7.31vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.82+3.10vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.90+6.43vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.45+2.48vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.64-3.48vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.55+0.22vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.10-3.08vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.27-0.22vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.53-6.63vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-2.81vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.47-4.40vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03-3.51vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-7.15vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University1.37-2.70vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College0.73-1.90vs Predicted
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20Brown University3.33-13.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.22Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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11.16College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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11.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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7.98Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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12.31University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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9.1Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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13.43Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.48Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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5.52Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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10.22U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
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7.92Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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11.78University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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6.37Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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11.19Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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10.6University of Pennsylvania2.470.0%1st Place
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12.49St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
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9.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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15.3Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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17.1Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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6.94Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 2.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Miles Williams | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 3.1% |
| William Michels | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Shea Smith | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 7.4% |
| Kelly Holthus | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.9% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 3.2% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maks Groom | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Jackson McAliley | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 15.4% | 21.4% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 14.1% | 46.9% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.