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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+4.42vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.55+8.07vs Predicted
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3University of Miami2.27+8.39vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.10+3.63vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.07+7.06vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.07+1.75vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.33-0.15vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.82+0.53vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.35+1.80vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+0.76vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.47-0.59vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.90+1.20vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.55-2.63vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.45-3.55vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-5.27vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03-3.68vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-6.16vs Predicted
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18Yale University2.77-8.84vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College0.73-1.95vs Predicted
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20Northeastern University1.37-4.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.42Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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10.07U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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11.39University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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7.63Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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12.06University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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7.75Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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6.85Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.53Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.8College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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10.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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10.41University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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13.2Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.37Stanford University2.550.0%1st Place
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10.45Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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9.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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12.32St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
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10.84Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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9.16Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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17.05Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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15.21Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 14.7% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.9% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 2.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Miles Williams | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Shea Smith | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 7.3% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Kelly Holthus | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 4.9% |
| Maks Groom | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 47.6% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 18.1% | 19.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.