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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.33+5.59vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.45+8.46vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.07+4.82vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.77+4.96vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.07+7.08vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.55+4.08vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+3.05vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.82+0.52vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.10-1.59vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.90+3.05vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.47-0.59vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-1.01vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.27-1.28vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.55-4.07vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.64-9.51vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03-3.69vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.37-1.99vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-6.91vs Predicted
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19College of Charleston2.35-8.12vs Predicted
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20Connecticut College0.73-2.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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10.46Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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7.82Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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8.96Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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12.08University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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10.08U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
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10.05U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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8.52Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.41Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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13.05Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.41University of Pennsylvania2.470.0%1st Place
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10.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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11.72University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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9.93Stanford University2.550.0%1st Place
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5.49Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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12.31St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
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15.01Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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11.09Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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10.88College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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17.15Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Miles Williams | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
| Jack Welburn | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| William Michels | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 6.6% |
| Jackson McAliley | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.6% | 14.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 17.7% | 18.7% |
| Maks Groom | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.7% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 47.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.