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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.55+8.93vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+7.76vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.64+2.54vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.35+6.96vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.82+3.74vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.05+6.40vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.07+0.94vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.10-0.59vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+1.62vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.90+3.03vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.27+0.39vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-0.92vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.45-2.14vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.55-4.04vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03-2.66vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.33-9.43vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island2.07-4.90vs Predicted
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18Yale University2.77-8.94vs Predicted
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19Northeastern University1.37-3.96vs Predicted
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20Connecticut College1.37-4.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.93U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
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9.76U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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5.54Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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10.96College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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8.74Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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12.4University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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7.94Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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7.41Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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10.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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13.03Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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11.39University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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11.08Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
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10.86Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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9.96Stanford University2.550.0%1st Place
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12.34St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
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6.57Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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12.1University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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9.06Yale University2.770.0%1st Place
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15.04Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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15.26Connecticut College1.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Daniel Unangst | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.2% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| William Michels | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Honig | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| Shea Smith | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% |
| Kelly Holthus | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% |
| Guthrie Braun | 11.0% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Miles Williams | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 24.3% |
| Matias Martin | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 15.9% | 24.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.