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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+8.33vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+4.72vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+5.37vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.18+4.70vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.43+2.46vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College0.41+6.28vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.59-0.26vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.84+2.06vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.09+0.07vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.28-1.97vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.14-2.71vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.07-2.94vs Predicted
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13Fordham University0.69-2.49vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.71-6.65vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.99-5.48vs Predicted
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16Florida State University0.50-5.27vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College-0.13-3.09vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.47-3.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.995.3%1st Place
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6.72St. Mary's College of Maryland1.6810.4%1st Place
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8.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.406.6%1st Place
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8.7Cornell University1.186.2%1st Place
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7.46Webb Institute1.438.2%1st Place
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12.28SUNY Maritime College0.412.1%1st Place
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6.74Tufts University1.598.4%1st Place
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10.06University of Vermont0.844.3%1st Place
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9.07Connecticut College1.095.3%1st Place
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8.03University of Pennsylvania1.287.0%1st Place
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8.29Boston University1.146.5%1st Place
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9.06George Washington University1.075.8%1st Place
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10.51Fordham University0.693.6%1st Place
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7.35Northeastern University1.718.9%1st Place
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9.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.995.1%1st Place
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10.73Florida State University0.503.4%1st Place
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13.91Connecticut College-0.131.5%1st Place
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14.86Princeton University-0.471.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed McAllister | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Nathan Jensen | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Pilar Cundey | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 10.4% |
| Gus Macaulay | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Cooper Smith | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 2.9% |
| Duncan Craine | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| John Majernik | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Tiare Sierra | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| James Owen | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 3.9% |
| Will Priebe | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Brady Parks | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 5.1% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 18.1% | 23.9% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 42.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.