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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.19+6.59vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University4.78+3.51vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+2.36vs Predicted
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4University of Miami3.99+4.06vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College3.70+4.15vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+0.55vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida4.17+0.47vs Predicted
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8Boston College4.89-2.99vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+1.78vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin4.10-2.00vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College4.15-3.27vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California3.16-0.60vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University2.37+0.44vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island3.62-4.77vs Predicted
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15Washington College3.65-5.66vs Predicted
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16University of Oregon1.97-1.35vs Predicted
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17University of Texas1.82-2.01vs Predicted
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18Marquette University0.69-1.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.59Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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5.51Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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5.36St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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8.06University of Miami3.990.1%1st Place
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9.15Eckerd College3.700.0%1st Place
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6.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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7.47University of South Florida4.170.1%1st Place
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5.01Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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10.78University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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8.0University of Wisconsin4.100.1%1st Place
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7.73SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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11.4University of Southern California3.160.0%1st Place
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13.44Northwestern University2.370.0%1st Place
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9.23University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
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9.34Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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14.65University of Oregon1.970.0%1st Place
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14.99University of Texas1.820.0%1st Place
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16.74Marquette University0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Morris | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cy Thompson | 9.7% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 12.3% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Voss | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Hidde Van Der Molen | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| David Thompson | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Marks | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Sinks | 15.0% | 14.4% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Kutschenreuter | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Stephen Lue | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Michael Cornew | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 17.4% | 17.8% | 5.3% |
| Matthew Carmody | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Balter | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 20.0% | 24.0% | 12.7% |
| Caitlynn Taylor | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 19.3% | 26.3% | 17.3% |
| Patrick Farrell | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 17.3% | 61.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.