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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+8.54vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.43+5.30vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.59+3.75vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+4.62vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.18+3.51vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.71+1.31vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.41+5.07vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.99+1.45vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.09-0.18vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-3.25vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.69-0.48vs Predicted
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12Florida State University0.50-1.21vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.14-4.72vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.07-4.58vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College-0.13-1.16vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.47-1.12vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.84-7.03vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.28-9.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.995.0%1st Place
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7.3Webb Institute1.438.6%1st Place
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6.75Tufts University1.5910.2%1st Place
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8.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.405.3%1st Place
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8.51Cornell University1.186.7%1st Place
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7.31Northeastern University1.717.8%1st Place
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12.07SUNY Maritime College0.412.9%1st Place
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9.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.995.3%1st Place
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8.82Connecticut College1.095.6%1st Place
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6.75St. Mary's College of Maryland1.6810.1%1st Place
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10.52Fordham University0.694.2%1st Place
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10.79Florida State University0.503.4%1st Place
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8.28Boston University1.145.9%1st Place
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9.42George Washington University1.075.2%1st Place
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13.84Connecticut College-0.131.8%1st Place
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14.88Princeton University-0.470.9%1st Place
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9.97University of Vermont0.844.5%1st Place
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8.18University of Pennsylvania1.286.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed McAllister | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Gus Macaulay | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Pilar Cundey | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Will Priebe | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 10.5% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| Duncan Craine | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Nathan Jensen | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| James Owen | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
| Brady Parks | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 4.8% |
| Tiare Sierra | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 18.4% | 24.5% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 39.9% |
| Cooper Smith | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.7% |
| John Majernik | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.