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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+8.28vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.99+7.16vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+3.55vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.43+3.12vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.18+3.13vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.14+1.69vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.84+2.52vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.28-0.25vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.38+1.43vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.71-3.14vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-2.92vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.59-5.44vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.07-4.38vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.41-2.47vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College-0.13-1.60vs Predicted
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16Florida State University0.50-5.66vs Predicted
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17Fordham University-0.99-1.51vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.47-3.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.995.3%1st Place
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9.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.995.8%1st Place
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6.55St. Mary's College of Maryland1.6810.2%1st Place
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7.12Webb Institute1.437.8%1st Place
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8.13Cornell University1.187.0%1st Place
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7.69Boston University1.147.4%1st Place
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9.52University of Vermont0.844.7%1st Place
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7.75University of Pennsylvania1.286.8%1st Place
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10.43Connecticut College0.383.5%1st Place
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6.86Northeastern University1.718.9%1st Place
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8.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.407.3%1st Place
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6.56Tufts University1.5910.1%1st Place
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8.62George Washington University1.076.0%1st Place
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11.53SUNY Maritime College0.412.5%1st Place
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13.4Connecticut College-0.131.5%1st Place
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10.34Florida State University0.503.4%1st Place
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15.49Fordham University-0.990.6%1st Place
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14.48Princeton University-0.471.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed McAllister | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Jensen | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Pilar Cundey | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Tiare Sierra | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Cooper Smith | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| John Majernik | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Liam Gronda | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 2.2% |
| Will Priebe | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Gus Macaulay | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 4.5% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 18.5% | 12.8% |
| Brady Parks | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 2.1% |
| Brendan Sheeran | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 16.6% | 45.6% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 20.2% | 27.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.