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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.18+7.23vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+4.35vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.43+3.97vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.84+5.67vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+3.08vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.59+0.49vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+1.88vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.28-0.24vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.99-0.08vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.14-2.12vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.71-4.11vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.41-0.61vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.07-4.28vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.38-3.32vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College-0.13-1.63vs Predicted
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16Florida State University0.50-5.49vs Predicted
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17Fordham University-0.99-1.40vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.47-3.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.23Cornell University1.185.6%1st Place
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6.35St. Mary's College of Maryland1.689.6%1st Place
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6.97Webb Institute1.439.6%1st Place
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9.67University of Vermont0.843.4%1st Place
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8.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.406.8%1st Place
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6.49Tufts University1.599.7%1st Place
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8.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.995.5%1st Place
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7.76University of Pennsylvania1.287.4%1st Place
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8.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.995.5%1st Place
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7.88Boston University1.147.4%1st Place
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6.89Northeastern University1.719.2%1st Place
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11.39SUNY Maritime College0.413.2%1st Place
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8.72George Washington University1.075.9%1st Place
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10.68Connecticut College0.383.2%1st Place
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13.37Connecticut College-0.131.9%1st Place
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10.51Florida State University0.504.0%1st Place
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15.6Fordham University-0.991.0%1st Place
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14.61Princeton University-0.471.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pilar Cundey | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Jensen | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Cooper Smith | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Gus Macaulay | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| John Majernik | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Tiare Sierra | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Will Priebe | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ben Hosford | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 5.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Liam Gronda | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 2.2% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 17.8% | 13.5% |
| Brady Parks | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Brendan Sheeran | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 17.6% | 44.6% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 12.0% | 21.4% | 27.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.