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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+8.12vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.14+5.55vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.99+5.97vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.59+2.37vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+3.29vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.28+1.61vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.43+0.15vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-1.49vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.84+0.66vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.07-1.41vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College-0.13+2.32vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.38-1.33vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.71-6.19vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.41-2.42vs Predicted
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15Florida State University0.50-4.46vs Predicted
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16Fordham University-0.99-0.47vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.47-2.64vs Predicted
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18Cornell University1.18-9.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.994.8%1st Place
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7.55Boston University1.148.6%1st Place
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8.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.995.0%1st Place
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6.37Tufts University1.599.7%1st Place
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8.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.406.2%1st Place
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7.61University of Pennsylvania1.288.1%1st Place
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7.15Webb Institute1.438.0%1st Place
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6.51St. Mary's College of Maryland1.6810.2%1st Place
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9.66University of Vermont0.844.8%1st Place
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8.59George Washington University1.076.2%1st Place
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13.32Connecticut College-0.131.8%1st Place
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10.67Connecticut College0.383.4%1st Place
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6.81Northeastern University1.719.3%1st Place
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11.58SUNY Maritime College0.412.3%1st Place
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10.54Florida State University0.503.5%1st Place
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15.53Fordham University-0.990.7%1st Place
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14.36Princeton University-0.471.3%1st Place
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8.36Cornell University1.186.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed McAllister | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 0.4% |
| Tiare Sierra | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Gus Macaulay | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| John Majernik | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Jensen | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Smith | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 19.4% | 13.5% |
| Liam Gronda | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 2.5% |
| Will Priebe | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 5.5% |
| Brady Parks | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 2.9% |
| Brendan Sheeran | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 16.3% | 46.2% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 22.1% | 25.1% |
| Pilar Cundey | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.