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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.69+2.67vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.15+2.77vs Predicted
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3The Citadel0.34+3.56vs Predicted
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4Princeton University0.34+2.63vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College-0.06+2.47vs Predicted
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6Washington College-0.87+3.16vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.01-4.00vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.83-2.61vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.30-4.74vs Predicted
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10Boston University0.60-4.08vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.29-1.07vs Predicted
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12University of South Carolina-2.41-0.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.67Webb Institute1.690.2%1st Place
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4.77University of Pennsylvania1.150.1%1st Place
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6.56The Citadel0.340.1%1st Place
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6.63Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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7.47SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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9.16Washington College-0.870.0%1st Place
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3.0Fordham University2.010.3%1st Place
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5.39University of Vermont0.830.1%1st Place
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4.26Cornell University1.300.1%1st Place
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5.92Boston University0.600.1%1st Place
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9.93Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.290.0%1st Place
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11.23University of South Carolina-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payne Donaldson | 17.6% | 18.2% | 16.8% | 15.7% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Margaux Cowles | 10.3% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 14.7% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 14.6% | 15.8% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 0.1% |
| Jasper Waldman | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Roeber | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 19.3% | 14.9% | 9.2% | 1.8% |
| Austin Latimer | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 23.7% | 26.8% | 9.5% |
| Lucas Thress | 27.6% | 21.4% | 16.2% | 13.1% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Pilar Cundey | 12.8% | 14.7% | 16.4% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Cabell | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Oliver Browne | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 18.3% | 36.0% | 19.3% |
| Ryan Kanter | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 16.2% | 68.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.