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📊 Prediction Accuracy
12.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont0.84+3.47vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College0.70+3.00vs Predicted
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3University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.02+4.11vs Predicted
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4University of New Hampshire0.10+2.29vs Predicted
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5University of New Hampshire-1.11+5.90vs Predicted
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6University of Connecticut-0.80+3.68vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College-0.79+3.04vs Predicted
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8Amherst College-0.35+0.37vs Predicted
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9Brown University0.38-3.14vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.56-4.88vs Predicted
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11Williams College-0.90-0.05vs Predicted
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12Boston University0.25-5.32vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-0.99-2.31vs Predicted
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14University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.97-3.69vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-1.41-3.21vs Predicted
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16Amherst College-1.69-3.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47University of Vermont0.8416.1%1st Place
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5.0Dartmouth College0.7013.0%1st Place
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7.11University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.026.9%1st Place
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6.29University of New Hampshire0.1010.2%1st Place
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10.9University of New Hampshire-1.112.2%1st Place
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9.68University of Connecticut-0.802.4%1st Place
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10.04Middlebury College-0.793.1%1st Place
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8.37Amherst College-0.355.2%1st Place
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5.86Brown University0.3810.4%1st Place
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5.12University of Vermont0.5612.4%1st Place
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10.95Williams College-0.902.2%1st Place
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6.68Boston University0.258.0%1st Place
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10.69University of New Hampshire-0.992.6%1st Place
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10.31University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.972.5%1st Place
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11.79University of New Hampshire-1.411.8%1st Place
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12.73Amherst College-1.691.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Smith | 16.1% | 16.1% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Hurwitz | 13.0% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Delong | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Sam Harris | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Brendan OBrien | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.6% |
| Ryan Treat | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% |
| Grace Augspurger | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 5.4% |
| Nat Edmonds | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Charles Case | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 12.4% | 14.0% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 10.7% |
| Richard Kalich | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Henry Poynter | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 8.6% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 7.1% |
| Devyn Weed | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 19.2% |
| Adrian Whitney | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 15.4% | 31.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.