← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Vermont0.84+3.50vs Predicted
-
2Amherst College-0.35+6.44vs Predicted
-
3University of Vermont0.56+2.09vs Predicted
-
4Brown University0.38+2.00vs Predicted
-
5University of New Hampshire0.10+1.31vs Predicted
-
6University of Connecticut-0.80+3.76vs Predicted
-
7Williams College-0.90+4.10vs Predicted
-
8University of New Hampshire-0.99+2.68vs Predicted
-
9Boston University0.25-2.33vs Predicted
-
10University of New Hampshire-1.41+1.59vs Predicted
-
11Dartmouth College0.70-6.10vs Predicted
-
12University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.02-4.76vs Predicted
-
13Middlebury College-0.79-3.13vs Predicted
-
14University of New Hampshire-1.11-3.12vs Predicted
-
15Amherst College-1.69-2.30vs Predicted
-
16University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.97-5.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.5University of Vermont0.8418.0%1st Place
-
8.44Amherst College-0.353.8%1st Place
-
5.09University of Vermont0.5613.1%1st Place
-
6.0Brown University0.389.3%1st Place
-
6.31University of New Hampshire0.109.2%1st Place
-
9.76University of Connecticut-0.803.0%1st Place
-
11.1Williams College-0.901.7%1st Place
-
10.68University of New Hampshire-0.992.3%1st Place
-
6.67Boston University0.257.7%1st Place
-
11.59University of New Hampshire-1.411.6%1st Place
-
4.9Dartmouth College0.7013.8%1st Place
-
7.24University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.026.8%1st Place
-
9.87Middlebury College-0.793.3%1st Place
-
10.88University of New Hampshire-1.112.2%1st Place
-
12.7Amherst College-1.691.1%1st Place
-
10.26University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.973.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Smith | 18.0% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nat Edmonds | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 13.1% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Case | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Harris | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Treat | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 4.8% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 12.4% |
| Henry Poynter | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 9.0% |
| Richard Kalich | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Devyn Weed | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 16.4% |
| Ava Hurwitz | 13.8% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Delong | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Grace Augspurger | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 5.5% |
| Brendan OBrien | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 10.8% |
| Adrian Whitney | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 15.4% | 30.9% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 7.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.