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📊 Prediction Accuracy
70.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.05+2.07vs Predicted
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2Rochester Institute of Technology1.06+1.08vs Predicted
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3Hamilton College0.40+1.26vs Predicted
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4Penn State Behrend0.24+0.48vs Predicted
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6Penn State University0.96-2.78vs Predicted
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7University of Pittsburgh-0.08-1.97vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University-1.42-0.71vs Predicted
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9Rochester Institute of Technology-1.01-2.41vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester-2.15-1.86vs Predicted
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11U. S. Military Academy-4.61-1.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.07Cornell University1.050.3%1st Place
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3.08Rochester Institute of Technology1.060.2%1st Place
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4.26Hamilton College0.400.1%1st Place
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4.48Penn State Behrend0.240.1%1st Place
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3.22Penn State University0.960.2%1st Place
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5.03University of Pittsburgh-0.080.1%1st Place
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7.29Syracuse University-1.420.0%1st Place
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6.59Rochester Institute of Technology-1.010.0%1st Place
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8.14University of Rochester-2.150.0%1st Place
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9.84U. S. Military Academy-4.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Merrill | 25.3% | 19.8% | 18.4% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Turner | 23.3% | 20.1% | 20.0% | 14.6% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Stone | 10.6% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 19.4% | 17.0% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Anthony Farrar | 8.5% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 16.8% | 16.4% | 16.3% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 19.3% | 21.9% | 17.3% | 19.1% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Polaski | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 16.5% | 17.1% | 18.0% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Collin Ross | 1.5% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 10.5% | 17.3% | 31.0% | 24.9% | 2.1% |
| John Wynne | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 23.1% | 27.0% | 12.8% | 0.6% |
| Josephine Freis | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 9.2% | 20.1% | 51.6% | 7.1% |
| Sophie Fernandez | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 6.8% | 90.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.