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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont0.84+3.47vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire0.10+4.37vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont0.56+2.12vs Predicted
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4Brown University0.38+1.93vs Predicted
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5University of Connecticut-0.80+5.02vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.25+0.70vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College0.70-2.05vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College-0.79+1.91vs Predicted
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9University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.02-1.68vs Predicted
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10Williams College-0.90+0.95vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-0.99-0.55vs Predicted
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12Amherst College-0.35-3.57vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-1.41-1.41vs Predicted
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14Amherst College-1.69-1.35vs Predicted
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15University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.97-4.60vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-1.11-5.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47University of Vermont0.8416.4%1st Place
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6.37University of New Hampshire0.108.3%1st Place
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5.12University of Vermont0.5612.5%1st Place
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5.93Brown University0.389.8%1st Place
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10.02University of Connecticut-0.802.7%1st Place
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6.7Boston University0.258.0%1st Place
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4.95Dartmouth College0.7013.4%1st Place
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9.91Middlebury College-0.793.3%1st Place
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7.32University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.027.0%1st Place
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10.95Williams College-0.902.9%1st Place
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10.45University of New Hampshire-0.992.8%1st Place
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8.43Amherst College-0.355.1%1st Place
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11.59University of New Hampshire-1.411.8%1st Place
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12.65Amherst College-1.691.4%1st Place
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10.4University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.972.1%1st Place
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10.74University of New Hampshire-1.112.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Smith | 16.4% | 15.2% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Harris | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 12.5% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Charles Case | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Treat | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 5.5% |
| Richard Kalich | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Ava Hurwitz | 13.4% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Grace Augspurger | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 5.3% |
| William Delong | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 11.5% |
| Henry Poynter | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 9.2% |
| Nat Edmonds | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Devyn Weed | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 16.1% |
| Adrian Whitney | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 15.3% | 29.2% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.5% |
| Brendan OBrien | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.