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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.47+3.92vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.29+3.45vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.04+3.26vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.93+2.62vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.18+0.71vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.30+2.73vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.92-3.20vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.13-2.13vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.19+0.11vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.22-1.24vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.08-1.68vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island0.140.00vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan-0.52+0.55vs Predicted
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14Florida State University0.21-2.08vs Predicted
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15Boston University-1.11-0.45vs Predicted
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16Fordham University0.99-6.36vs Predicted
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17Washington College-3.47-0.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.92Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
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5.45Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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6.26College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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6.62Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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5.71University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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8.73Tufts University1.300.0%1st Place
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3.8Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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5.87Bowdoin College2.130.1%1st Place
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9.11U. S. Naval Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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8.76George Washington University1.220.0%1st Place
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9.32Jacksonville University1.080.0%1st Place
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12.0University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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13.55University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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11.92Florida State University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.55Boston University-1.110.0%1st Place
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9.64Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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16.79Washington College-3.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordelia Burn | 14.1% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katharine Doble | 11.2% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma Tallman | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 8.2% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 9.9% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Haley Andreasen | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Emma Cowles | 19.7% | 17.7% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 10.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Russler | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Agija Elerte | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 18.3% | 17.6% | 8.7% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 9.6% | 14.5% | 27.1% | 24.1% | 3.5% |
| Niah Ford | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 17.7% | 16.6% | 9.3% | 0.1% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 9.2% | 18.6% | 46.9% | 6.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Nora Beebe | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 6.0% | 89.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.