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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island0.14+10.75vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.04+4.19vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.13+2.99vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.18+1.87vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.19+3.85vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.30+2.83vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.47-2.03vs Predicted
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8Florida State University0.21+3.62vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.93-2.28vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.29-4.60vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.08-1.58vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.22-3.17vs Predicted
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13Boston University-1.11+1.57vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.99-4.29vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.92-11.14vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.52-2.39vs Predicted
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17Washington College-3.47-0.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.75University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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6.19College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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5.99Bowdoin College2.130.1%1st Place
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5.87University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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8.85U. S. Naval Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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8.83Tufts University1.300.0%1st Place
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4.97Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
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11.62Florida State University0.210.0%1st Place
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6.72Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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5.4Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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9.42Jacksonville University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.83George Washington University1.220.0%1st Place
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14.57Boston University-1.110.0%1st Place
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9.71Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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3.86Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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13.61University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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16.8Washington College-3.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 18.0% | 16.9% | 8.9% | 0.5% |
| Emma Tallman | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Russler | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Haley Andreasen | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 11.8% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niah Ford | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 12.8% | 17.2% | 15.6% | 8.7% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.9% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katharine Doble | 10.4% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Agija Elerte | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 8.8% | 17.4% | 47.1% | 8.3% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Emma Cowles | 22.6% | 15.5% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 28.6% | 24.5% | 1.6% |
| Nora Beebe | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 6.4% | 89.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.