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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.13+4.89vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.47+3.00vs Predicted
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3Fordham University0.99+6.67vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.04+2.36vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.34+0.28vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy0.86+4.31vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.22+1.92vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.92-4.10vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.08+0.58vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.30-1.37vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.29-5.30vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan-0.52+2.00vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.14-0.65vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.18-8.01vs Predicted
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15Florida State University0.21-2.99vs Predicted
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16Washington College-0.61-1.79vs Predicted
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17Boston University-1.11-1.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.89Bowdoin College2.130.1%1st Place
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5.0Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
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9.67Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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6.36College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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5.28Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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10.31U. S. Naval Academy0.860.0%1st Place
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8.92George Washington University1.220.0%1st Place
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3.9Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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9.58Jacksonville University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.63Tufts University1.300.0%1st Place
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5.7Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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14.0University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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12.35University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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5.99University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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12.01Florida State University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.21Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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15.2Boston University-1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Russler | 10.0% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 13.1% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Emma Tallman | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Winborne Majette | 12.6% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 0.5% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Emma Cowles | 20.7% | 18.3% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Agija Elerte | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Haley Andreasen | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Katharine Doble | 10.8% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 22.5% | 20.6% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 17.5% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 6.8% |
| Torrey Chisari | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niah Ford | 0.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 15.4% | 11.1% | 5.1% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 11.4% | 17.3% | 23.3% | 21.2% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 19.6% | 43.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.