Race 1A

yale-fall-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Blake Behrens 27.3% 23.1% 16.1% 14.3% 8.4% 5.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Reid Nelson 3.3% 2.6% 3.5% 5.1% 5.8% 5.9% 7.0% 10.0% 8.4% 13.2% 11.5% 14.6% 9.1%
Tavia Smith 5.1% 5.4% 7.8% 8.7% 8.7% 11.4% 9.4% 11.4% 10.8% 8.3% 7.2% 4.5% 1.3%
Martins Atilla 15.6% 17.2% 15.8% 12.8% 11.7% 10.7% 7.1% 5.3% 1.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Wilson Kaznoski 4.0% 4.6% 5.3% 5.7% 7.2% 6.8% 9.3% 9.5% 11.9% 10.6% 12.3% 7.8% 5.0%
Jakub Fuja 5.2% 4.8% 6.2% 6.9% 8.6% 8.9% 11.6% 10.6% 11.1% 9.2% 7.7% 5.8% 3.4%
Alexandra Chigas 7.5% 7.5% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 10.5% 11.4% 10.4% 8.6% 6.9% 6.4% 3.2% 1.2%
Caylin Schnoor 3.3% 4.8% 3.9% 5.4% 5.6% 6.3% 8.8% 10.6% 11.9% 10.5% 12.6% 10.7% 5.6%
Andrew White 0.9% 1.0% 1.7% 2.4% 2.7% 2.2% 2.7% 3.4% 4.7% 7.2% 8.5% 16.1% 46.5%
Connor Macken 8.4% 6.0% 9.5% 9.3% 12.2% 10.9% 9.7% 8.9% 8.4% 6.6% 5.9% 3.5% 0.7%
Beck Lorsch 1.6% 1.7% 2.6% 4.0% 3.6% 5.1% 6.4% 5.9% 9.4% 12.2% 13.8% 17.6% 16.1%
Laura Hamilton 15.7% 19.5% 15.3% 12.7% 11.7% 10.2% 7.1% 4.0% 1.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Nolan Cooper 2.1% 1.8% 3.8% 4.2% 4.4% 5.9% 6.9% 8.5% 10.6% 11.7% 13.2% 16.0% 10.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.