Race 4A

yale-fall-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Martins Atilla 16.3% 17.5% 14.9% 12.6% 15.0% 7.2% 6.8% 5.4% 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Connor Macken 6.4% 8.1% 8.8% 9.7% 10.6% 10.6% 12.1% 10.1% 8.7% 7.4% 4.1% 2.2% 1.2%
Tavia Smith 4.0% 6.1% 8.6% 8.4% 10.1% 9.6% 10.3% 11.8% 11.6% 7.6% 6.2% 4.2% 1.5%
Alexandra Chigas 6.0% 7.6% 7.4% 10.2% 9.9% 11.3% 10.2% 8.9% 11.0% 7.5% 5.1% 3.6% 1.3%
Reid Nelson 3.6% 3.2% 3.4% 5.2% 5.3% 7.2% 7.8% 8.2% 10.9% 11.2% 12.1% 13.6% 8.3%
Laura Hamilton 19.4% 17.7% 15.9% 13.7% 11.6% 8.9% 4.3% 4.6% 2.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Blake Behrens 27.5% 22.8% 17.8% 11.5% 8.8% 5.1% 3.7% 2.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wilson Kaznoski 3.6% 4.4% 5.3% 5.6% 6.0% 8.3% 9.7% 10.0% 10.8% 11.1% 11.2% 10.0% 4.0%
Beck Lorsch 1.9% 2.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.4% 5.3% 4.6% 5.8% 6.7% 11.8% 13.9% 17.2% 21.2%
Jakub Fuja 5.4% 5.0% 5.7% 6.9% 8.3% 10.1% 11.1% 9.8% 10.5% 8.2% 9.4% 6.6% 3.0%
Andrew White 0.6% 1.3% 0.6% 1.9% 2.0% 3.1% 3.6% 5.3% 5.2% 7.5% 11.1% 17.4% 40.4%
Caylin Schnoor 2.9% 2.5% 4.9% 6.3% 5.3% 7.2% 8.3% 10.4% 9.9% 11.4% 11.7% 10.7% 8.5%
Nolan Cooper 2.4% 1.8% 3.6% 4.9% 3.7% 6.1% 7.5% 7.5% 9.7% 13.4% 14.4% 14.4% 10.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.