Race 5A

yale-fall-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Wilson Kaznoski 3.5% 4.1% 4.5% 6.5% 6.5% 8.5% 8.6% 9.3% 13.1% 11.1% 10.5% 9.6% 4.2%
Laura Hamilton 18.0% 16.9% 17.6% 14.8% 10.1% 8.0% 6.6% 3.5% 2.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Tavia Smith 4.8% 5.4% 8.0% 8.4% 10.1% 9.2% 11.4% 12.0% 10.7% 8.3% 5.6% 4.8% 1.3%
Andrew White 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 2.1% 1.0% 3.3% 4.1% 4.0% 5.0% 5.4% 11.6% 16.3% 44.6%
Martins Atilla 17.8% 17.8% 15.0% 14.3% 11.5% 8.2% 7.3% 4.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Alexandra Chigas 6.7% 7.5% 7.7% 9.6% 9.7% 10.7% 11.7% 9.5% 9.6% 6.9% 6.0% 3.7% 0.7%
Connor Macken 7.0% 7.6% 9.8% 9.6% 10.0% 10.6% 11.0% 10.8% 8.0% 7.3% 5.4% 1.8% 1.1%
Blake Behrens 27.9% 21.2% 17.5% 12.8% 10.2% 5.7% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Beck Lorsch 1.6% 3.6% 2.2% 2.7% 3.5% 4.5% 5.0% 6.0% 8.9% 10.3% 13.6% 17.7% 20.4%
Jakub Fuja 4.8% 6.2% 5.0% 6.2% 8.5% 10.1% 10.3% 10.5% 10.5% 9.7% 8.8% 6.7% 2.7%
Reid Nelson 2.2% 3.0% 4.6% 5.0% 6.3% 7.5% 7.3% 9.5% 9.4% 14.1% 10.8% 12.0% 8.3%
Caylin Schnoor 2.9% 2.9% 4.8% 4.4% 7.3% 7.1% 7.2% 10.4% 10.3% 11.6% 12.7% 12.0% 6.4%
Nolan Cooper 1.9% 3.0% 2.4% 3.6% 5.3% 6.6% 6.8% 9.2% 9.0% 13.1% 13.7% 15.1% 10.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.