Race 8A

yale-fall-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Martins Atilla 16.0% 16.0% 17.1% 14.5% 11.8% 8.9% 6.4% 4.5% 2.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Wilson Kaznoski 3.5% 4.7% 3.9% 5.7% 7.7% 8.1% 8.6% 10.3% 11.4% 11.3% 10.1% 10.0% 4.7%
Reid Nelson 2.8% 2.0% 2.8% 4.4% 6.7% 7.3% 6.4% 8.9% 11.1% 12.0% 13.9% 12.3% 9.4%
Blake Behrens 27.1% 22.3% 18.1% 12.2% 9.1% 5.7% 3.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Jakub Fuja 6.1% 5.2% 5.5% 7.9% 9.2% 8.6% 8.8% 11.7% 11.6% 9.8% 7.2% 6.5% 1.9%
Tavia Smith 5.4% 7.1% 7.8% 9.4% 8.9% 9.7% 12.4% 10.1% 9.3% 7.4% 6.7% 4.2% 1.6%
Laura Hamilton 19.5% 17.0% 15.9% 14.0% 11.4% 8.1% 5.8% 4.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Connor Macken 6.6% 9.2% 8.9% 9.2% 8.9% 10.5% 12.3% 11.0% 9.3% 6.2% 5.1% 2.3% 0.5%
Alexandra Chigas 6.1% 7.3% 7.9% 9.4% 8.1% 12.4% 11.7% 10.9% 7.6% 8.0% 5.6% 4.0% 1.0%
Andrew White 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 3.2% 3.1% 4.3% 7.0% 9.5% 16.7% 45.2%
Beck Lorsch 1.7% 2.1% 2.4% 3.0% 4.3% 5.1% 6.2% 7.0% 8.5% 11.4% 13.8% 17.1% 17.4%
Caylin Schnoor 2.4% 3.9% 4.0% 5.2% 6.8% 6.7% 7.2% 9.7% 11.4% 12.0% 13.2% 10.6% 6.9%
Nolan Cooper 1.9% 2.1% 4.0% 3.1% 4.6% 6.1% 8.0% 7.4% 9.9% 11.8% 13.9% 15.8% 11.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.