Race 1A

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

80.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ryan Treat 5.3% 5.1% 7.9% 9.1% 10.0% 12.7% 15.1% 14.5% 14.0% 6.3%
Olin Guck 24.9% 24.8% 19.7% 13.7% 9.2% 4.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Sam Harris 11.6% 12.3% 14.2% 15.9% 15.7% 14.1% 8.5% 5.0% 2.0% 0.7%
Thomas Mazzeo 30.3% 26.8% 18.2% 13.1% 6.6% 2.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Winowiecki 4.5% 4.1% 5.6% 6.8% 10.1% 11.1% 13.6% 18.0% 15.2% 11.0%
Zach Earnshaw 8.3% 7.5% 8.8% 11.3% 15.5% 13.2% 14.8% 10.3% 7.8% 2.5%
Richard Kalich 8.2% 11.7% 14.1% 15.7% 14.6% 13.4% 12.0% 6.6% 2.7% 1.0%
Kai Latham 3.0% 4.1% 5.5% 5.8% 9.7% 11.1% 13.7% 17.3% 17.1% 12.7%
Oliver Browne 2.4% 2.3% 3.6% 4.9% 4.8% 9.8% 11.0% 15.1% 22.9% 23.2%
Thomas Broadus 1.5% 1.3% 2.4% 3.7% 3.8% 7.0% 7.3% 12.2% 18.2% 42.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.