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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.89+2.29vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+3.69vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+2.88vs Predicted
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4University of Washington1.83+1.75vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.40+1.40vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii2.41-1.79vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.82+1.98vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+2.25vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.98-1.35vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.76-0.92vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine-0.36+2.76vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University0.53-1.49vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles0.43-2.69vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University0.74-2.62vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.58-2.25vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University0.54-5.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.29Stanford University2.8924.1%1st Place
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5.69California Poly Maritime Academy1.929.0%1st Place
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5.88University of California at Santa Barbara1.788.6%1st Place
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5.75University of Washington1.8310.4%1st Place
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6.4University of Southern California1.408.2%1st Place
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4.21University of Hawaii2.4116.8%1st Place
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8.98California State University Channel Islands0.823.5%1st Place
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10.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.2%1st Place
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7.65University of California at Berkeley0.984.6%1st Place
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9.08University of California at Santa Cruz0.763.3%1st Place
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13.76University of California at Irvine-0.360.7%1st Place
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10.51San Diego State University0.532.2%1st Place
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10.31University of California at Los Angeles0.432.1%1st Place
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11.38Arizona State University0.741.4%1st Place
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12.75University of California at San Diego-0.581.1%1st Place
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10.11Western Washington University0.541.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reade Decker | 24.1% | 20.2% | 17.8% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 9.0% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stone | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Luke Harris | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Erik Anderson | 16.8% | 15.3% | 15.4% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Max Case | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 5.2% |
| Will Cornell | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Ring | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 16.3% | 44.4% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 5.1% |
| Daren Sathasivam | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 4.2% |
| Aidan Boylan | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 9.5% |
| Sean Lipps | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 20.8% | 23.5% |
| Nathan Gerber | 1.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 3.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.