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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.54+4.25vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.23+4.25vs Predicted
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3University of Miami2.66+5.45vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.99+2.84vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+2.79vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.90+5.24vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.50+1.88vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.18+2.10vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.30+0.65vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.53-0.98vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.22-4.81vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.99-4.76vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.12-2.78vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-3.28vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.90-3.77vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University0.94-1.32vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.27-3.30vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.25-4.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.25Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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6.25University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.45University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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6.84Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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7.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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11.24George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.88Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.1Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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9.65Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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9.02Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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6.19Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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7.24U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.22Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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10.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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11.23Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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14.68Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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13.7University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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13.54University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 13.2% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 5.8% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.6% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Will Priebe | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 2.9% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 5.9% |
| Matthew King | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 16.9% | 32.7% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 16.1% | 20.9% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 15.5% | 18.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.