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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+7.03vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.54+3.11vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.50+6.15vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.30+5.62vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.53+3.70vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.12+4.35vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.23-0.91vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.18+2.11vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.27+4.55vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-2.86vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.25+2.71vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.22-5.54vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.99-6.11vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-3.22vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.90-3.77vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.66-7.69vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.90-5.64vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University0.94-3.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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5.11Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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9.15Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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9.62Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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8.7Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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10.35Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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6.09University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.11Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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13.55University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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13.71University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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6.46Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.89Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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10.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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11.23George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.31University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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11.36Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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14.43Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 12.5% | 14.5% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Will Priebe | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 2.6% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 16.4% | 18.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 15.8% | 22.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.7% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 5.7% |
| Matthew King | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 16.5% | 30.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.