← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Rhode Island3.23+5.37vs Predicted
-
2Jacksonville University1.61+10.88vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University3.22+3.27vs Predicted
-
4Harvard University3.54+1.04vs Predicted
-
5Stanford University2.99+1.99vs Predicted
-
6George Washington University1.90+5.42vs Predicted
-
7Fordham University1.90+4.38vs Predicted
-
8Roger Williams University2.30+1.75vs Predicted
-
9Boston College2.53-0.22vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-2.70vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-3.00vs Predicted
-
12University of Miami2.66-3.30vs Predicted
-
13Northeastern University2.12-2.60vs Predicted
-
14Old Dominion University2.18-4.04vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-3.78vs Predicted
-
16University of Wisconsin1.25-2.09vs Predicted
-
17University of Vermont1.27-3.12vs Predicted
-
18Tulane University2.50-9.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.37University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
-
12.88Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
-
6.27Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
-
5.04Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
-
6.99Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
-
11.42George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
-
11.38Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
-
9.75Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
-
8.78Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
-
7.3U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
8.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
-
8.7University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
-
10.4Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
-
9.96Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
-
11.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
-
13.91University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
-
13.88University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
-
8.76Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Igoe | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 14.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 14.9% | 14.6% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.5% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Will Priebe | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 6.7% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 14.8% | 25.2% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 11.3% | 15.5% | 25.3% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.