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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+7.12vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.54+3.21vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.90+8.69vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.99+3.00vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.30+4.70vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.18+4.28vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.23-0.84vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.50+0.98vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.90+2.45vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.22-3.57vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.99-3.82vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.25+2.04vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.66-4.76vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.12-3.82vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University1.61-2.53vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-4.70vs Predicted
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17Boston College2.53-8.00vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont1.27-4.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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5.21Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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11.69Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.0Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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9.7Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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10.28Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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6.16University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.98Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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11.45George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.43Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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7.18U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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14.04University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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8.24University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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10.18Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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12.47Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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11.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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9.0Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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13.57University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.2% | 13.9% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 7.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 2.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 5.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 29.7% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Will Priebe | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.4% |
| Patrick Igoe | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 13.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.3% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 14.6% | 21.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.