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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.18+9.49vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.22+4.32vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.30+7.08vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.54+1.07vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.23+1.12vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.03vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.12+3.54vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.66+0.26vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.53-0.16vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-1.85vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.27+2.79vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.50-2.68vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.99-6.10vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.90-2.89vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-3.85vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University1.61-3.40vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.90-5.45vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.25-4.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.49Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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6.32Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.08Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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5.07Harvard University3.540.2%1st Place
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6.12University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.03U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.54Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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8.26University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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8.84Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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8.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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13.79University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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9.32Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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6.9Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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11.11George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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11.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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12.6Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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11.55Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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13.68University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noyl Odom | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.5% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 15.3% | 15.0% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Will Priebe | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 25.9% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.3% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% |
| Patrick Igoe | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 13.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 7.3% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 14.7% | 23.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.