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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.54+4.31vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.22+4.31vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.53+6.09vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.30+5.67vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.23+1.14vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.90+5.40vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.99-0.03vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.66+0.23vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.50-0.11vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-2.77vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-2.97vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.12-1.17vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.18-2.92vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.90-2.96vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University1.61-2.51vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-4.73vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.25-3.13vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont1.08-3.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.31Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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6.31Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.09Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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9.67Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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6.14University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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11.4Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.97Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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8.23University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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8.89Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.83Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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10.08Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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11.04George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.49Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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11.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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13.87University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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14.14University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 13.9% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.3% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Will Priebe | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 4.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 11.3% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 24.5% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 15.4% | 27.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.