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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+6.15vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.90+9.59vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.54+2.13vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.18+6.01vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.22+1.09vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23+0.07vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.50+1.85vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.30+1.61vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.99-2.13vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-1.89vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.53-2.11vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-0.55vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin1.25+0.47vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University0.94+0.34vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.12-4.64vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.66-7.73vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.27-3.30vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.90-6.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.15U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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11.59George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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5.13Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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10.01Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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6.09Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.07University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.85Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.61Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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6.87Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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8.11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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8.89Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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11.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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13.47University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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14.34Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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10.36Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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8.27University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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13.7University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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11.04Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 5.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 12.7% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.6% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 5.7% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 15.5% | 19.6% |
| Matthew King | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 31.9% |
| Will Priebe | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 17.3% | 20.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.