← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University1.90+10.38vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University3.54+3.18vs Predicted
-
3Stanford University2.99+4.14vs Predicted
-
4University of Rhode Island3.23+2.04vs Predicted
-
5Northeastern University2.12+5.25vs Predicted
-
6George Washington University1.90+5.30vs Predicted
-
7University of Miami2.66+1.22vs Predicted
-
8Boston College2.53+0.66vs Predicted
-
9University of Wisconsin1.25+4.64vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University2.30-0.06vs Predicted
-
11Georgetown University3.22-4.75vs Predicted
-
12Old Dominion University2.18-1.48vs Predicted
-
13Tulane University2.50-4.23vs Predicted
-
14Jacksonville University0.94+0.34vs Predicted
-
15University of Vermont1.27-1.46vs Predicted
-
16U. S. Naval Academy2.99-9.00vs Predicted
-
17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-9.05vs Predicted
-
18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-7.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
11.38Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
-
5.18Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
-
7.14Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
-
6.04University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
-
10.25Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
-
11.3George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
-
8.22University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
-
8.66Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
-
13.64University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
-
9.94Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
-
6.25Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
-
10.52Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
-
8.77Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
-
14.34Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
-
13.54University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
-
7.0U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
7.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
-
10.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Dolan | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.9% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 12.2% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Will Priebe | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.7% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Matthew King | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 31.9% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 18.2% | 18.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.