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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.90+10.40vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.99+5.14vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+3.25vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.53+4.65vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.22+1.04vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.54-1.00vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.06vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-0.28vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin1.25+4.67vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.12+0.63vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.66-2.59vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.90-0.40vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.50-4.24vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.27-0.77vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.18-4.89vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.30-6.21vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-5.80vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University0.94-3.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.4George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.14Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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6.25University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.65Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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6.04Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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5.0Harvard University3.540.2%1st Place
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6.94U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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13.67University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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10.63Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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8.41University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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11.6Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.76Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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13.23University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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10.11Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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9.79Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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11.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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14.45Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wood | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 7.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.4% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 15.1% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 16.5% | 19.4% |
| Will Priebe | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 3.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 6.8% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 14.9% | 19.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 4.3% |
| Matthew King | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 31.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.