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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+8.22vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+5.77vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.69+9.98vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.35+6.04vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.83+3.11vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.81+2.33vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+1.87vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.43-2.13vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.47-3.30vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.91+2.20vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.42-4.89vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.10-4.50vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University2.01-1.54vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-1.84vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.07-0.29vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.69-7.15vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.89-4.81vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.62-9.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.77St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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12.98Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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10.04SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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8.11University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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8.33Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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5.87Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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5.7Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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12.2Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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6.11Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.5College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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11.46North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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12.16University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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14.71University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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8.85Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
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12.19University of South Florida1.890.0%1st Place
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8.95Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 13.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.2% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 11.9% | 13.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bragg | 11.2% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 9.8% |
| Connor Nelson | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Adam Larson | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 7.2% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 10.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 36.1% |
| Bridget Green | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 10.8% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.