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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.47+5.02vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+7.04vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+5.99vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.62+4.96vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.43+0.86vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.81+2.34vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.91+4.97vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.42-2.13vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.10-1.96vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.83-1.55vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University2.01+0.75vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-4.11vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-4.12vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.07+0.49vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.89-3.02vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.69-3.12vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.69vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-5.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.02Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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9.04Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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8.99Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
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8.96Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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5.86Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.34Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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11.97Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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5.87Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.04College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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8.45University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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11.75North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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7.89St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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14.49University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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11.98University of South Florida1.890.0%1st Place
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12.88Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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10.31SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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12.28University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 10.3% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Bridget Green | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 12.6% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 9.4% |
| Connor Nelson | 11.1% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.1% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.1% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Adam Larson | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 8.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Will Murray | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 34.3% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.9% |
| Noah Robitshek | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 14.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 10.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.