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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.81+7.57vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.43+4.08vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.83+5.45vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.53vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.69+3.68vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.42-0.03vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.62+2.10vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.35+2.11vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.10-1.96vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-0.70vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.47-5.07vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-2.83vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-0.71vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.91-2.40vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.07-0.27vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.89-3.88vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University2.01-5.27vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.69-5.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.57Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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6.08Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.45University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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7.53St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.68Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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5.97Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.1Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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10.11SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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7.04College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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9.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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5.93Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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9.17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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12.29University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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11.6Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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14.73University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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12.12University of South Florida1.890.0%1st Place
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11.73North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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12.59Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 8.5% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Bridget Green | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Connor Nelson | 10.6% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 3.3% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Will Murray | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| Robert Bragg | 11.8% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 12.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 15.1% | 36.0% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 10.4% |
| Adam Larson | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 8.8% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 13.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.