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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.81+7.31vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.83+6.13vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+5.75vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.43+1.62vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.42+0.72vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.47-0.43vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+1.60vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.78vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.04+2.19vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+2.45vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-2.15vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.62-2.80vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan1.07+1.41vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University2.01-2.98vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.89-3.27vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.00vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.91-5.13vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.69-5.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.31Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.13University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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8.75Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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5.62Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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5.72Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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5.57Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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8.6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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7.22St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.19College of Charleston2.040.0%1st Place
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12.45University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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8.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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9.2Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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14.41University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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11.02North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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11.73University of South Florida1.890.0%1st Place
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10.0SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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11.87Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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12.37Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Green | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 12.5% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 12.7% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Robert Bragg | 12.2% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Emma Tallman | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 4.9% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 12.2% |
| Will Murray | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 35.2% |
| Adam Larson | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 8.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 3.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 12.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.