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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.69+7.81vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+6.76vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.81+5.26vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.42+1.69vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+7.13vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.47-0.43vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan1.07+7.50vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.43-2.33vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.35+0.83vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.83-1.73vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.04+0.29vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.91+0.11vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.62-4.31vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida1.89-2.53vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-6.32vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.69-3.39vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-9.46vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University2.01-6.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.81Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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8.76Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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8.26Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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5.69Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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12.13University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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5.57Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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14.5University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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5.67Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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9.83SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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8.27University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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11.29College of Charleston2.040.0%1st Place
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12.11Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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8.69Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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11.47University of South Florida1.890.0%1st Place
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8.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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12.61Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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7.54St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.13North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Connor Nelson | 12.9% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 11.5% |
| Robert Bragg | 12.3% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 14.7% | 35.1% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 11.2% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Emma Tallman | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% |
| Rayne Duff | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 10.7% |
| Trevor Davis | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Eden Nykamp | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 7.8% |
| Will Murray | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Noah Robitshek | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 13.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Adam Larson | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.