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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+4.18vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.41+1.60vs Predicted
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3Stanford University1.29+3.95vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+1.46vs Predicted
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5University of Washington1.83+0.25vs Predicted
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6California State University Channel Islands0.82+2.40vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.40-1.17vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.98-0.98vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-1.29+5.06vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University0.74+0.80vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.76-2.38vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University0.53-1.92vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.58-0.65vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.36-0.78vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-5.12vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University0.54-6.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.18California Poly Maritime Academy1.9212.5%1st Place
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3.6University of Hawaii2.4121.8%1st Place
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6.95Stanford University1.296.3%1st Place
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5.46University of California at Santa Barbara1.789.7%1st Place
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5.25University of Washington1.8311.8%1st Place
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8.4California State University Channel Islands0.824.5%1st Place
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5.83University of Southern California1.409.8%1st Place
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7.02University of California at Berkeley0.986.5%1st Place
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14.06University of California at Los Angeles-1.290.5%1st Place
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10.8Arizona State University0.742.0%1st Place
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8.62University of California at Santa Cruz0.764.0%1st Place
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10.08San Diego State University0.532.8%1st Place
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12.35University of California at San Diego-0.580.9%1st Place
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13.22University of California at Irvine-0.360.5%1st Place
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9.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.8%1st Place
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9.31Western Washington University0.543.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 12.5% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 21.8% | 19.8% | 15.4% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexis Young | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 9.7% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Stone | 11.8% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Luke Harris | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Teresa Dang | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 10.1% | 20.2% | 44.9% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 4.8% |
| Andrew Ring | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 2.6% |
| Sean Lipps | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 20.2% | 13.9% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 13.6% | 22.6% | 27.9% |
| Max Case | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.