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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.42+5.13vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.81+6.43vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.43+3.01vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.47+1.62vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+3.82vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.35+4.05vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.91+4.79vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.58vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.07+5.66vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University2.01+1.61vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.83-2.72vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-2.93vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.69-4.50vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-1.98vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.69-2.46vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.10-8.86vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.27-2.86vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.62-9.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.13Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.43Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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6.01Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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5.62Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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8.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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10.05SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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11.79Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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7.42St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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14.66University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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11.61North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.28University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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9.07Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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8.5Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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12.02University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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12.54Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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7.14College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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14.14University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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8.76Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bragg | 12.9% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 18.3% | 31.6% |
| Adam Larson | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Bridget Green | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 7.9% |
| Noah Robitshek | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 13.8% | 10.6% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 16.5% | 26.5% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.