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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+7.94vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+6.90vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.43+2.95vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.72vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.46vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.83+2.12vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.91+4.81vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.42-2.15vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.81-0.87vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.35+0.29vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.10-3.80vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University2.01-0.26vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.47-7.35vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.07+0.32vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.62-6.07vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.69-3.28vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.27-2.86vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-5.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.94Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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8.9Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
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5.95Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.46St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.12University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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11.81Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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5.85Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.13Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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10.29SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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7.2College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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11.74North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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5.65Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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14.32University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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8.93Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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12.72Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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14.14University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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12.12University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bruce | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Bridget Green | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 6.9% |
| Connor Nelson | 11.0% | 13.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 2.4% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Adam Larson | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 7.6% |
| Robert Bragg | 12.5% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 17.0% | 28.3% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.8% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 13.4% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 18.2% | 25.5% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 8.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.