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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.47+4.99vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.42+4.11vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.62+6.33vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.51vs Predicted
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5North Carolina State University2.01+6.37vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.91+5.96vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.83+1.21vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+0.77vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.69-0.26vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.81-1.43vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.10-3.75vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-2.65vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.35-2.97vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.43-8.23vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.69-2.25vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.89-3.93vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.07-2.14vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-5.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.99Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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6.11Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.33Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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7.51St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.37North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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11.96Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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8.21University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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8.77Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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8.74Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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8.57Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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7.25College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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9.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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10.03SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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5.77Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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12.75Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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12.07University of South Florida1.890.0%1st Place
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14.86University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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12.38University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Adam Larson | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 6.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 9.6% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Bridget Green | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.0% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.4% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 12.0% | 13.6% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 14.0% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 9.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 16.4% | 37.5% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 10.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.