← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Bowdoin College2.81+7.54vs Predicted
-
2Yale University3.43+4.02vs Predicted
-
3Boston University1.69+10.01vs Predicted
-
4College of Charleston3.10+3.11vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.57vs Predicted
-
6University of Pennsylvania2.83+2.27vs Predicted
-
7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+1.85vs Predicted
-
8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.91vs Predicted
-
9Tufts University2.62+0.04vs Predicted
-
10Dartmouth College3.47-4.00vs Predicted
-
11SUNY Maritime College2.35-0.65vs Predicted
-
12Brown University3.42-5.73vs Predicted
-
13North Carolina State University2.01-1.59vs Predicted
-
14Webb Institute1.91-2.37vs Predicted
-
15University of South Florida1.89-3.01vs Predicted
-
16Cornell University2.69-7.12vs Predicted
-
17University of Michigan1.07-2.16vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-5.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.54Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
-
6.02Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
-
13.01Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
-
7.11College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
-
7.57St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
8.27University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
-
8.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
-
8.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
-
9.04Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
-
6.0Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
-
10.35SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
-
6.27Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
-
11.41North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
-
11.63Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
-
11.99University of South Florida1.890.0%1st Place
-
8.88Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
-
14.84University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
-
12.32University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 15.8% | 14.3% |
| Noah Zittrer | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.6% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Will Murray | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Robert Bragg | 12.0% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.8% |
| Connor Nelson | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Adam Larson | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 6.9% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 7.7% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.4% |
| Bridget Green | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 15.5% | 37.6% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 11.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.