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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.82+5.48vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.77+4.59vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.43+5.01vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.40+0.39vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.49+2.57vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32+2.24vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.35+1.09vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.60+2.97vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+3.66vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida1.37+2.16vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.69-0.10vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-2.85vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.09-0.23vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-6.32vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.05-5.79vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.32-7.71vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.10-1.18vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.31-5.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.48Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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6.59Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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8.01Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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4.39Brown University3.400.2%1st Place
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7.57Bowdoin College2.490.1%1st Place
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8.24Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.1%1st Place
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8.09College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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10.97Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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12.66University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.0%1st Place
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12.16University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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10.9Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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9.15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.0%1st Place
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12.77SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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7.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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9.21University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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8.29Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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15.82University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
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12.02North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 17.9% | 17.5% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Maks Groom | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Porter Bell | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 3.4% |
| Jasper Reid | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 14.9% | 9.6% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 7.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 3.8% |
| Madison Bashaw | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| John Vail | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 15.3% | 12.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Sophia Devling | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 14.2% | 52.4% |
| Benjamin Usher | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 7.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.